The year 2024 brings a pivotal moment in the global climate landscape with the release of the Rhodium Climate Outlook (RCO), shedding light on the probabilistic projections of global emissions and energy trends. Following the inaugural Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, concerns were raised about the insufficient progress towards limiting temperature rise below 2°C. Countries were urged to enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to align with net-zero emission goals by mid-century.

As nations gear up to unveil their 2035 NDCs, the lack of standardized baseline emissions data and the challenge of predicting future economic and energy dynamics pose significant hurdles. The RCO steps in to bridge this gap by offering a comprehensive view of greenhouse gas emissions trajectories and energy patterns across major economies. By presenting a range of potential outcomes rather than a single forecast, the RCO equips policymakers with a valuable tool to evaluate the adequacy of proposed NDCs.

In its latest iteration, the RCO outlines emissions projections under four scenarios. The Baseline scenario sets the stage by illustrating the trajectory without accelerated climate policies or technological advancements. The Current NDC Scenario explores a future where countries meet their NDCs by 2030 but lack increased ambition post-2030. The Current Mid-Century Commitments Scenario envisions a world where nations achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, while the Expanded Net-Zero Commitments Scenario pushes for net-zero targets by 2070 globally.

The report indicates that despite progress in decarbonizing the power and transportation sectors, challenges persist. Renewable energy sources are projected to expand significantly, but sustained support and innovation are needed to overcome barriers to widespread adoption. Industrial emissions, particularly from sectors like steel and cement, remain high, necessitating accelerated policy interventions and technological innovations for decarbonization.

Notably, the RCO forecasts a global temperature increase of 2.0-3.7°C by the end of the century in the Baseline scenario, falling short of the 2°C target set by the Paris Agreement. However, enhanced climate policies and technological breakthroughs could improve the odds of staying below the 2°C threshold. The report underscores the importance of countries meeting their mid-century emissions targets to significantly enhance the likelihood of achieving the 2°C goal.

In conclusion, the Expanded Net-Zero Commitments Scenario offers a promising outlook, indicating that a collective shift towards net-zero emissions by 2070 could raise the probability of limiting temperature rise below 2°C to 96%. This ambitious target, if realized, could bring the world closer to achieving the 1.5°C goal by the end of the century. The RCO serves as a critical instrument for policymakers and stakeholders to navigate the complex landscape of climate action and strive towards a sustainable future.