The Rhodium Climate Outlook for 2024 presents probabilistic global emissions and energy projections, shedding light on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and temperature increase worldwide until the end of the century. Following the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, there were concerns about the insufficiency of efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C. Countries were urged to enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to curb greenhouse gas emissions significantly.

As nations gear up to announce their 2035 NDCs in early 2025, the lack of consistent baseline emissions projections across major economies poses a challenge in evaluating the ambition of these contributions. The Rhodium Climate Outlook (RCO) addresses this gap by offering a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and energy trends in major economies, providing a probability distribution of potential outcomes based on economic growth, fossil fuel prices, and clean energy technology costs.

The latest RCO edition outlines emissions projections under various scenarios, including the Baseline, Current NDC Scenario, Current Mid-Century Commitments Scenario, and Expanded Net-Zero Commitments Scenario. It reveals that the world is currently set to surpass a 2°C temperature increase, although progress has been made in mitigating the most severe projections. The report emphasizes the importance of accelerated climate policies and technological advancements to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

While advancements in decarbonizing electricity and transitioning to electric vehicles have been notable, challenges persist, particularly in industrial emissions reduction. Despite reductions in the power and transport sectors, industries like steel, cement, and refining continue to struggle with decarbonization. The report underscores the need for enhanced policy support and innovation to achieve substantial emission cuts across all sectors.

Countries adhering to mid-century emissions targets significantly enhance the likelihood of limiting temperature rise below 2°C. Moreover, if all nations commit to net-zero greenhouse gas targets by 2070, the probability of meeting the 2°C temperature goal by the end of the century rises to 96%. The report suggests that global cooperation and ambitious climate actions are imperative to avert catastrophic climate change scenarios.

In conclusion, the Rhodium Climate Outlook provides a crucial assessment of global emissions trends and temperature projections, urging countries to ramp up their climate ambitions and commit to net-zero emissions to secure a sustainable future for the planet.