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EV Industry Evolution: US and Europe Face China Competition

Electric vehicles (EVs) have rapidly evolved from a niche technology to a mainstream industry, playing a pivotal role in decarbonization and reshaping the automotive sector in the US and Europe. Unlike China, both regions have deep roots in traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) technology, making their transition to EVs particularly significant.

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The surge in EV deployment is fueled by policy incentives, cost reductions, and changing consumer preferences, prompting substantial investments across the EV value chain. This has led to intense global competition, especially from China, challenging policymakers and companies in the US and Europe.

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Tracking EV uptake in key regions reveals varying adoption rates, with the US lagging behind Europe and China. European sales saw a boost after the EU’s directive to phase out ICE vehicles by 2035, while the US witnessed growth due to federal standards and tax credits. However, consumer choices, subsidy cuts, and policy uncertainties have hindered sales in both regions.

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Domestic production of EVs in Europe and the US is significant, albeit trailing China, which dominates the global market. The two regions have ramped up manufacturing investments in response to China’s leadership, with Europe experiencing a surge in production capacity supported by state aid.

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Despite steady investment growth, recent quarters have shown a slowdown in EV investments, mirroring declining sales. Uncertainties around federal support, tariffs, and policy changes pose risks to future projects, impacting production capacity expansion in both the US and Europe.

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In the US, evolving policy landscapes, tariffs, and potential tax credit repeals threaten the competitiveness of domestically made EVs. Conversely, the EU’s clear emission targets provide more stability, although debates on protecting domestic production versus allowing cheaper imports persist.

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Both regions export a portion of their EV production, with Europe fostering partnerships with Chinese firms. However, regulatory uncertainties and cost pressures challenge Europe’s industry competitiveness. As China solidifies its dominance in EV production, US and European market shares are at risk, necessitating strategic policies to bolster domestic markets and manufacturing.

Collaborations like the one between Bruegel and Rhodium Group are crucial for monitoring market trends and investments, aiding in informed policy decisions to navigate the evolving EV landscape. With global perspectives becoming more critical, tracking clean technology investments worldwide will be essential to address China’s growing influence and drive sustainable industrial transformations.

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