In 2024, after a strong end to 2023, BullionVault users anticipated a rise in gold prices to $2342 per Troy ounce by December 2024. As gold surged early in the year, comparisons were drawn with the global stock market highs, especially in AI-related shares like Nvidia. This led to a curiosity about the predictions of AI tools, ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini, for the bullion market.
On February 23, 2024, both AI tools were asked to forecast gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices for the upcoming four quarters. These predictions were then compared with human forecasts from BullionVault users and professional market analysts. Gemini’s forecasts generally aligned closer with actual prices compared to ChatGPT, indicating AI’s potential impact on market predictions.
Gemini’s accuracy was particularly notable in predicting gold, platinum, and palladium prices, with minimal variance from actual figures. In contrast, ChatGPT’s predictions for silver and palladium were more divergent from reality, showcasing the challenges AI faces in forecasting certain markets accurately.
BullionVault users, known for their insightful forecasts, predicted gold prices to end the year at $2342 per ounce, a forecast that was remarkably close to the actual average prices for 2024. This reflected a keen awareness among users of the factors influencing precious metal prices, such as monetary policy and geopolitical events.
Looking at silver, both AI tools projected significant price increases by the end of 2024, with ChatGPT forecasting a potential high of $40 per ounce. In contrast, BullionVault users’ more conservative estimate of $29 per ounce proved to be closer to the actual average price for the year.
Gemini’s platinum price forecasts were more conservative compared to ChatGPT’s bullish predictions. Gemini’s estimates closely mirrored actual prices, indicating a more accurate forecasting ability in this metal compared to other tools and human forecasts.
Palladium proved to be the most challenging metal to predict, with ChatGPT significantly overshooting actual prices in its forecasts. Gemini fared better but still showed a considerable variance from reality, highlighting the complexities of predicting certain metal prices accurately.
Overall, the interplay between AI predictions, human forecasts, and actual market prices in 2024 showcased the evolving landscape of market forecasting. While AI tools like Gemini demonstrated promising accuracy in some instances, the unpredictability of certain metals like palladium underscored the need for a nuanced approach to market analysis and forecasting.
